William R. Collier Jr.

In a stunning reversal of position, and despite Russians threats that they might hold back supplies of natural gas (Europe receives 25% of its natural gas from Russia) German Chancellor Angela Merckel announced today that “Georgia will be in NATO.”

The French and the the English are also hardening their positions on Russia, despite predictions by many pundits that they would cave in to Moscow primarily because of the natural gas issue. What pundits forget is that many in Europe are coming to realize that Russia is only going to get more power of them if the pipeline that runs through Georgia is controlled by Russia and, also, they forget that Russia NEED hard currency as much as, if not more than, Europe needs the natural gas.

Russia’s adventure in the Caucuses may allow them, and this is also in doubt, to take over Ossetia and Abkhazia but the long term price is mounting:

1. The Ukraine has issued a new policy, forbidding the deployment, into or out of the Russian naval port of Sevastopol in the Crimea without their permission in advance and has stated that Russian naval vessels that have been used against Georgia are not welcome

2. Poland agreed to allow US missile interceptors on their soil and signed a special mutual protection treaty with the US that goes beyond the NATO commitment

3. In Georgia, Russia’s advance was not a cake walk, it was opposed and slowed by ragged fighters, some of whom were civilians and the behavior of Russian tropps along with the apparent condition (which you can clearly see) is less than to be expected from a “great power”

4. Russia’s support for Iran, clearly seen now as a bid to upset America and the West, is causing America, Europe, and Israel to consider options outside of the UN where Russia has veto power, which is weakening Russia’s ability to protect its ally

5. Germany now wants Georgia in NATO right away, a role reversal, and is willing to risk a potential cut off of natural gas supplies from Russia whole it is now all but inevitable that Urkaine will be fast-tracked into NATO

This may not bode well for Russia but the Russians have blown past all constraints and it is possible, even if slightly less than likely, that Russia will use the Crimea as a pretext against the Ukrainians and that they will move quickly even as they now seem bent on making sure Iran does in fact become a nuclear power as a counterbalance to US power.

For years this humble writer has warned that a real LAND WAR is still possible, that notions that we are entering into a new era of warfare which is limited to cyber attacks, low grade conflicts, and guerrilla or terrorist campaigns is silly when viewed in light of all of human history. The Russian instinct towards imperialism is virtually inherent in the Russian psyche and is not based on ideology so much a dread fear that Russia is surrounded by enemies and needs “buffer states” to protect itself from attack.

When, not if, the US deploys its missile shield and reduces the likelihood of nuclear war as a viable option the biggest constraint against a land war will be effectively reduced: the desire for such a war is growing on the part of America’s enemies who have used terrorism, OPEC’s machinations, manipulations of money markets, and other devices to take on America, without real success.

Readers of my articles remember that in 2006 I said that in the next few years Russia and/or China would take military action against a US ally they felt was vulnerable as part of a trend towards confrontation that is deigned, ultimately, to lead to a large scale war which is somewhat in between the Korean War and world war two.

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