A Possible Base In Venezuela But MUCH MORE!

William R Collier Jr

[1] An American Freedomist

Russia has just landed two Tu-160 bombers in Venezuela. These bomber’s are over 150’ long with a range of 7,000 nautical miles, carry up to 30,000 lbs. of weapons, and require a hardened concrete runway of around 1.8 miles for take off and landing.

Venezuela’s largest airport, the Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas, which was nationalized in 2006 and is basically under military control, has JUST the right length of runways, a little under two miles, but the runways are asphalt runways.  

It is clear that Venezuela now has a 1.8 mile or greater runway made of concrete, but searching all known airports, there are 108 known and over 300 probable bush airports, there is not one that fits the bill for the Russian bombers.

The Russian Bombers require specialize equipment, including specialized gear for starting their engines, which Venezuela does not posses as far as we know.

On July 28, 2008, before the Georgian war, Hugo Chavez in Moscow agreed to allow Russian troops in to Venezuela, stating that the US was intending to invade. There article is here [2] http://www.newser.com/story/33106/chavez-id-welcome-russian-troops-in-venezuela.html.

In June of last year Venezuela signaled their intentions to purchase 5 Kilo class diesel submarines and, later, 4 Amur class diesel submarines after having already purchased $3 billion with of Russian arms including SU-30 fighters, 53 military helicopters, and 100,00 Ak-47 rifles.

While analysts in the cold war tradition find it improbable that the Russians would, or could, set up a base in Venezuela, it is becoming apparent that both parties are telegraphing exactly this intention.

Do the Venezuelans have an airfield that has concrete and is capable of supporting the TU-160 bomber? It is possible that a military airfield of this nature does exist, but we have not seen evidence for it outside of the fact that these aircraft have landed.

The US State Department’s Sean McCormick responded to question about this issue by dismissing it, saying, “then they found a few ships that can make it that far.”

Either this man is downplaying the US reaction or the US government is woefully ignorant of the significance of what is happening. All signs point now to a growing Russian presence in Venezuela, including a possible military base of a more permanent nature, while the US government has no reaction at all.

It is now fashionable to dismiss the Russian military in terms of their maintenance and training, but I am wondering if Morskoy Sbonornik (Russian naval journal) is talking about how there is a focus on upgrading certain units whole increasing training and discipline, using the billions of dollars Russia has in her coffers from oil and gas sales (the Russia’s seem now to be in a better hard currency situation than the Soviets ever were).

The Russians have been upgrading their military and since 2002 have placed naval rearmament on par with Strategic Nuclear rearmament, committing to a 13 year program of $192 Billion, with 25% going towards the navy itself. While this figure may not seem so great, remember this only includes equipment and over half the cost of such equipment comes from the cost of labor, which is considerably cheaper in Russia than in America.

[3] http://www.search.com/reference/Russian_Navy This review of the Russian Navy may be useful.

Back in 2000 Vladimir Putin said that Russian Naval power must be restored “if Russia is to prosper and take care of its own needs” echoing the sentiments of Soviet Naval planner, Admiral Gorschkov, who advocated for a blue water Navy that would be forward deployed.

The training and equipment are improving and there appears to be a focus on quality rather than quantity while new allies are sought who can afford to pay for upgraded ex-soviet systems, thus giving new life to these many vessels as the Russians build new one or improve their best equipment.

The pattern is expansion, seek new allies, build, improve training, and by all means keep the US off balance by changing the rules.

The dismissive response of the State Department reveals that they do not know what is commonly available for all who will do their homework: that the Russian Navy is coming back, perhaps now at 30% of its former strength but by 2015 as much as 70% of its former strength, that they are focusing on quality over quantity (leaving the “quantity” to their new allies), that they are possibly setting up shop in Venezuela, and that the old rules about what was acceptable or possible are being re-written from Moscow while Washington delays, confused, dazed, disbelieving.