29. June 2009 by admin.

http://www.obamachronicles.org/2009/06/29/iran-begins-partial-recount-in-bid-to-placate-opposition-wont-downgrade-ties-to-britain/

“Iran began recounting some of the votes cast in its disputed presidential election Monday in an apparent attempt to placate opposition protesters, and the government dismissed the idea of downgrading relations with Britain despite accusing that country of stirring up unrest.”

First the regime declared Akhmadinejad the winner without doubt, then they reversed their decision to allow for a five-day review, then they declared Akhmadinejad the undisputed winner, and now they are going to recount a full 10% of the vote.

Once again, following up on previous reports, these are the actions of an unfocused, desperate regime trying simply to survive.  A partial vote recount does not address denying Neda’s family the simple, but sacred Muslim rite of mourning.  A partial vote recount does not address the use of foreign hoodlums to kill the people.  The Supreme Leader does not understand that token recounts, no doubt that will ‘reveal’ no inconsistencies, do not even begin to to address the fundamental loss of credibility he and his waning supporters have lost.

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http://blog.freedomist.info/feed/

Paul Collier

The Freedomist

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28. June 2009 by admin.

“Breaking Tweets can confirm via reliable sources that Mir Houssein Mousavi has been arrested in Iran. He was arrested at approximately 9:30 p.m. Sunday in Tehran….Mousavi lost June 12’s presidential election to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a landslide, even though the results were expected to be close. It has sparked controversy in the days since and Mousavi supporters have organized protests.”

http://www.breakingtweets.com/2009/06/28/mir-hossein-mousavi-arrested-in-iran/

 This story is just now emerging about the arrest of Mousavi, coming as it does from an increase in rallies and confrontations, followed by yet another night of rooftop singing.  The continued acts of panic and desperation by the Supreme Leader must soon reach that crucial point where those who are aligning against him will have to move openly or the Supreme Leader will have to soon move decicively against elements of the IRG and the Guardian Council itself.

If the army does not offer support for the Supreme Leader, or if significant elements of the army do not follow orders,then the Supreme Leader will have to rely on increased foreign fighters, which could serve to eleminate his immedate threats around him, but the level of contempt the people have for the Supreme Leader at this point will simply produce another wave of opposition that can only be suppressed with even widerspread slaughter.

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Paul Collier

The Freedomist

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28. June 2009 by admin.

All of our insider intelligence, as well as our empirical experiences, and established assumptions about the nature of human behavior points to a regime change in a normal historical cycle lasting as long as 10 years, but in the twinkling of human communication powered by microblog nations forming from the ether of useless exchanges, the dialogue has been accelerated so that a people can form more complete pictures of the facts than ever before, accepting a level of misinformation, spam, and gossip, and being wary of every exchange.

In the overflow of video support documenting verbal stories, truth wills out, to some degree, but in the end it is the reputation alone that gives us a sense of confidence in that uttered truth.  These Iranian Freedomists, in a trickle-down effect, benefited from the mind of microblogging, the fractal that cannot be pintpointed at the source, can contain the whole within its minuscule sum, but cannot own the streams, the flow of information.

Those who are tapping into the mind of the mesh are translating their new realities to their family and friends around them.  Information is quick to spread amongst the Iranians through word of mouth.  Every night, without fail, the rooftops sing with “Alluha Akbar”.  The zeitgeist of a people is engaging with the massive machine of the Iranian regime at a pace and a level never seen in human history.  Agents on both sides are adapting at remarkable rates, the process of moving towards complete dissociation has been accelerated by the rapid exchange of responses and counter responses.

Debates that could take years to conduct between large networks can now take place almost as fast as peer to peer exchange.   But in this struggle, the Iranian people have been thrown a roadblock:  twitter search failure.

We saw a remarkable rise in new Iranian contacts.  The awful truth for the IRG tweeters (Iran Revol Guard) was that for every Iran tweeter that silenced, 10 more appeared.  The evidence of this comes from the decline in sophistication in the use of these twitter accounts (counting only what we consider to be reliable insiders).  The early leaders are now mostly gone, with a few still floating in and out with a declarative tweet.

But the new Iran tweeters are learning quickly, right now suffering from Twitter’s search engine failures, failures that have been rumored to be caused by IRG hackers, but we have seen no evidence to support such claims.  They are rumors to be taken into account very seriously, as it goes without saying that the most powerful feature of twitter is its search feature, without which novice tweeters will have a difficult time reaching us.

We are sure that DMing will begin to developed further.  A list of credible outside Iranians, as we all are who are supporting our Iranian brothers and sisters, should be supplied to the reliable insiders through DM, but not publicly broadcast because then the IRG could easily monitor the clone Iranians outside. as well as follow our followers, etc more easily.  The list should include no less than 200 reliable outside tweet sources for the reliable insiders to tweet their videos, messages out through.

When one of the 200 gets a tweet, we DM it to no less than 5 others on the list, and coordinate our first tweets to maximize our message within one another’s streams.

twitter.com/freedomist has long been one of the strongest tweeters for Iran, our account, and we want to be one of the 200, and to be able to recommend our list of reliable news tweeters, people like twitter.com/jilevin twitter.com/ericatweets as two examples of many we would recommend.

There are already many folks out there bringing lists out daily of the IRG tweeters, reliable outside tweeters, and if you DM us your link to your list, we will begin to put your links out regularly through our network so we can quickly, but in private DMs and phone conversations (everyone must be phone verified to be one of the 200- or whatever number we pick), not in public tweets or posts.

Please DM the Freedomist if you are already working on this project or if you would like to be involved in the selection process of the list of 200.  We assume no originating or centralizng rule here, nor will we sumbit to such a solution.  We true news tweeters have a fair idea of who tweets and how they tweet, and who is covering Iran reliably, diligently.  We must, however, get this list formed asap.  Even if twitter gets search back, it could go again tomorrow.

We have some data from sources that are not deemed completely reliable that twitter is facing cyber warfare from the IRG, that twitter is battling with the State Department over allowing the IRG tweeters to keep tweeting because the State Department is tracking their usage, their habits for any insight into what’s really goin on in Iran.

From a logical perspective, measuring the nature of human behavior, it would seem natural that government would see an advantage to allowing the IRG tweeters to keep tweeting and that Twitter, seeing its users being polluted by IRG racism and hate, seeing users watch the IRG tweeters violate twitter terms over and over again, almost being protected, would want to stop them from tweeting.

These open paths into twitter also allow the IRG hackers to follow the streams into twitter, attacking key elements, such as search.

Logically, these types of rumors make sense, but our evidence points more to the inability of twitter to handle the worldwide influx of tweets driven by one major worldwide event after another, the birth of the news tweet world.

Twitter search is experience difficulties because tweeters are using search more than ever (the power of the rumored-t0-be dead hashcode) taxing systems designed for far less usage.  Twitte has to constantly upgrade WHILE keeping itself online.  It hasn’t quite caught on to mirroring, where you always have two networks, one is the last updated network, the second is the next updated network in process of being prepared (tested by automated bots, etc).

The install of the second update could eventually occur in less than 20 minutes, and include an updated version that has been well-tested so that minimal glitches appear (bots can never mimic human behavior, only usage).

But until twitter gets to that world, let us not give in to conspiracy theories, but rather focus on the practical need to have redundant means of communication, the DM, after all, greater use of the DM will also begin to produce issues).

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Paul Collier

The Freedomist

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28. June 2009 by admin.

Iranian Freedomists Shout Marg Bar Diktator in this remarkable video, and, for those of us following our Freedomist friends in Iran, a ray of hope in a grey swirl of unknowns. Our tweets have followed sporadic inside tweets, rumors of arrests, enigmatic sign-offs, but never anything but an undying commitment to the end of this regime, a call for the power to truly choose their form of government amongst themselves.

This video has come to us from no less than 3 reliable sourcees, and 1 from a DM contact. The veracity of its date, that of today, we believe is backed up by the video techniques being employed. The Iranians have learned that the regime is watching everything, just as they are, so they are learning how to shoot video which documents what’s going on without revealing identities that will put peoples families and lives at risk.

This video’s use of blurring is more sophisticated than the first few examples we saw, the shot man from 6-26-9 failed to document with enough clarity the actual crime taking place, but they were able to document the result of that crime, a man fatally shot who was clearly walking, then dramatically fell. The videographer of the Marg bar dickator vidoe, as it has become labeled, has done a better job giving clarity in clever ways like showing the shoes of the protesters..and any Iranian will be able to tell from the shoes that this is a revolution across all social groups, the students now not even in the lead (women have long taken the lead in this green revolt).

The stone resolve you can sense from those blurred expressions, the patient pace of the crowd give you a sense of the level of blind disenfranchisement of the people as a whole, at least the urban Iranians, if not more (all our videos have come from urban centers).

They chant “Death to the Dictator”- Marg bar Dicktator not because they are a mob of executioners, but because this phrase is the ultimate blasphemy, next to blaspheming Allah himself. It is a statement that the Supreme Ruler no long has the sacred authority, the only authority he ever really held, over the people. While the rest of the world has moved on to Micheal Jackson and Michael Jackson, Iranians are fighting and dying and fighting some more. The longer the unrest goes on, the sooner the Supreme Leader will be felled.

We suspect the only reason the Supreme Leader still holds power is the factions drawn against him are also vying for their man to be the next Supreme Leader, but other factions are now prepared to jettison the whole Guardian Council/Supreme Leader model altogether (though no consensus models have yet formed).

The Iranian people are only committed to one thing, with various factions having other principle goals as well, the removal of the Supreme Leader. They are ready to consider a new reality, but they haven’t quite decided yet what that reality will be. Some want a reformed version of the present system while a growing group actually cite the US Constitution, particularly the Bill of Rights, as a good starting point.

Watch the video, then continue to read the commentary…

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The evidence of the overwhelming show of support of the Iranian people for the revolutionaries (at this point, we refuse to call them protestors) can be heard in the ubiquitous horn sounds you will hear as the camera pans another sea of shoes for all people.

This tells The Freedomist that the Iranian Revolution is winning. Imagine if you will that you have a truculent child. It would be your desire to control that child with but the tone of your voice, after all, you expend a lot less energy and your child is a lot less traumatized. The more you have to escalate, the greater that child’s resistance to your commands, until, eventually, you lose control of the child.

When a maniac loses control of something, they kill it, which is what the Supreme Leader, still following Akhmadinejad’s lead, seems to be doing now. He has all but declared a death sentence on the whole of the Iranian people. He has given his enemy the ultimate advantage, they now have nothing to lose.

This regime cannot last much longer without a significant shakeup in power. Whichever regime takes its place, the closer it resembles the existent structure, the less patience the people will have for the new regime. We predict, with a certainty of 4 out 5 that the existent regime of Iran has no more than one month before it will either be toppled, or Iran will break down into Civil War, with elements of the army fighting one another, and mercenaries flooding into Iran from the death camps of Hezbollah and Hamas.  The wildcard here is the degree to which the Iranian people are unable to defend themselves from what would have to be greater and greater numbers of foreign fighters.

This move, drawing resources from other groups say, in Pakistan and Afghanistan, could bring disfavor for the Supreme Leader from other Muslim leaders, undermining his hold on the Guardian Council even further.  The inability of the Supreme Leader to keep the trickle of information from getting out to the world has resulted in the utter collapse of confidence in his credibility with the world.  He is now a toxin.
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27. June 2009 by admin.

Ever since the President toughened his language a few days ago, two things have happened — maybe more than two, but at least two.  One is that the dissent has been all but crushed.  So is he powerless to affect the situation there?  And second, Ahmadinejad has attempted to use his words as exactly the kind of foil and political football that the President wanted to avoid.  So, number one, is the President powerless there; and number two, did he give them the kind of ammunition that he was trying to avoid giving?MR. GIBBS:  No.  Interesting 180 on your earlier question from earlier in the week.

Q    Times change.

MR. GIBBS:  Yes, apparently.  Look, I think the international community continues to condemn what is going on in Iran.  I think if you asked the Iranian regime where they are right now and where they sit and whether they think they’re in good stead and in control of that country, I think you’ll in a moment of honesty get a far different answer.  The President, again, has responded forcefully from the very moment of the elections, the first day that you all asked him questions in the Oval Office about violence that might happen and violence that at that point had already happened.

I think, again, what you’ve seen from Ahmadinejad is probably right out of the regime’s playbook.  They were going to — in many ways, they were going to try to do this regardless of what we said.  I think the President, in many ways, disposed of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s language from the past couple of days at the press avail earlier.  I think he has done what he needs to do to ensure that he doesn’t become a foil by the regime, and I think that’s been reported by many of your outlets from people believing that in Iran.

Q    Do you think that his more forceful presentation, his more forceful words, have had a direct effect on the situation in Iran for the better?

MR. GIBBS:  Well, I think the President — the President spoke out forcefully against violence from the very beginning.  I think those are universal principles that he and many throughout the world community uphold.  And he will continue, as they discussed it — as he discussed it with Chancellor Merkel, and as the G8 has done, continue to speak out on this.

Yes, ma’am.

Q    The President has always made an argument that unilateral engagement makes sense for our — within Iran — for our national security interests.  I’m sure that he takes issue with some of the ways Iran conducts itself, that regime conducts itself up to this point, yet he still felt that engagement was a good policy.  Today he seems to be saying engagement has to be on hold.  In any way does that undercut the argument that he’s made all along, that something has changed?

MR. GIBBS:  No, I think — again, I think what the President did today was largely reiterate what he’d said earlier in the week, that we’re going to — there obviously are a series of events that have yet to play out in Iran, and we’ll watch those events play out.  I think our long-term interest, as it relates to Iran and the danger in the region remain, quite honestly, no different than they remained the day before the election.  We’ve all witnessed the images since the days of that election, and that’s I think foremost on the minds of not only this President and this administration, but people throughout the world.

Q    But you still believe in engagement as a policy?

MR. GIBBS:  He does, understanding right now that the Iranians seem preoccupied.

Yes, sir.

 Chancellor Merkel today spoke directly to the election results in Iran when she said that there should be a re-vote, some kind of recount.  I haven’t heard President Obama say anything like that.  Does he agree with Chancellor Merkel on that?

MR. GIBBS:  That’s a decision that Iranians are going to have to make about their own leadership.

Q    So are you saying that Chancellor Merkel was going to go further than — went further than President Obama was prepared to?

MR. GIBBS:  I’m not going to — I’ve not been hired to characterize Chancellor Merkel’s statements.

Q    But he said they spoke with one voice.

MR. GIBBS:  In condemning the violence.  I think you all have heard everything that the President said on this. 

full transcript

http://blog.obamatweets.net/2009/06/27/6-26-9-obama-news-white-house-press-conference-robert-gibbs/

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