Iranian Freedomists Shout Marg Bar Diktator in this remarkable video, and, for those of us following our Freedomist friends in Iran, a ray of hope in a grey swirl of unknowns. Our tweets have followed sporadic inside tweets, rumors of arrests, enigmatic sign-offs, but never anything but an undying commitment to the end of this regime, a call for the power to truly choose their form of government amongst themselves.

This video has come to us from no less than 3 reliable sourcees, and 1 from a DM contact. The veracity of its date, that of today, we believe is backed up by the video techniques being employed. The Iranians have learned that the regime is watching everything, just as they are, so they are learning how to shoot video which documents what’s going on without revealing identities that will put peoples families and lives at risk.

This video’s use of blurring is more sophisticated than the first few examples we saw, the shot man from 6-26-9 failed to document with enough clarity the actual crime taking place, but they were able to document the result of that crime, a man fatally shot who was clearly walking, then dramatically fell. The videographer of the Marg bar dickator vidoe, as it has become labeled, has done a better job giving clarity in clever ways like showing the shoes of the protesters..and any Iranian will be able to tell from the shoes that this is a revolution across all social groups, the students now not even in the lead (women have long taken the lead in this green revolt).

The stone resolve you can sense from those blurred expressions, the patient pace of the crowd give you a sense of the level of blind disenfranchisement of the people as a whole, at least the urban Iranians, if not more (all our videos have come from urban centers).

They chant “Death to the Dictator”- Marg bar Dicktator not because they are a mob of executioners, but because this phrase is the ultimate blasphemy, next to blaspheming Allah himself. It is a statement that the Supreme Ruler no long has the sacred authority, the only authority he ever really held, over the people. While the rest of the world has moved on to Micheal Jackson and Michael Jackson, Iranians are fighting and dying and fighting some more. The longer the unrest goes on, the sooner the Supreme Leader will be felled.

We suspect the only reason the Supreme Leader still holds power is the factions drawn against him are also vying for their man to be the next Supreme Leader, but other factions are now prepared to jettison the whole Guardian Council/Supreme Leader model altogether (though no consensus models have yet formed).

The Iranian people are only committed to one thing, with various factions having other principle goals as well, the removal of the Supreme Leader. They are ready to consider a new reality, but they haven’t quite decided yet what that reality will be. Some want a reformed version of the present system while a growing group actually cite the US Constitution, particularly the Bill of Rights, as a good starting point.

Watch the video, then continue to read the commentary…

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The evidence of the overwhelming show of support of the Iranian people for the revolutionaries (at this point, we refuse to call them protestors) can be heard in the ubiquitous horn sounds you will hear as the camera pans another sea of shoes for all people.

This tells The Freedomist that the Iranian Revolution is winning. Imagine if you will that you have a truculent child. It would be your desire to control that child with but the tone of your voice, after all, you expend a lot less energy and your child is a lot less traumatized. The more you have to escalate, the greater that child’s resistance to your commands, until, eventually, you lose control of the child.

When a maniac loses control of something, they kill it, which is what the Supreme Leader, still following Akhmadinejad’s lead, seems to be doing now. He has all but declared a death sentence on the whole of the Iranian people. He has given his enemy the ultimate advantage, they now have nothing to lose.

This regime cannot last much longer without a significant shakeup in power. Whichever regime takes its place, the closer it resembles the existent structure, the less patience the people will have for the new regime. We predict, with a certainty of 4 out 5 that the existent regime of Iran has no more than one month before it will either be toppled, or Iran will break down into Civil War, with elements of the army fighting one another, and mercenaries flooding into Iran from the death camps of Hezbollah and Hamas.  The wildcard here is the degree to which the Iranian people are unable to defend themselves from what would have to be greater and greater numbers of foreign fighters.

This move, drawing resources from other groups say, in Pakistan and Afghanistan, could bring disfavor for the Supreme Leader from other Muslim leaders, undermining his hold on the Guardian Council even further.  The inability of the Supreme Leader to keep the trickle of information from getting out to the world has resulted in the utter collapse of confidence in his credibility with the world.  He is now a toxin.
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